A David Haye win would be great for boxing. Looks like boxing is shit out of luck because Wladimir Klitschko is going to extend his arsehole up to his cranium then defecate in his fucking mouth like he was a Chechen rebel

1.53 should do it

Heavyweights suck at the moment and have done for some time. Alphabet soup titles, obese Nigerians, slobbyUkrainians, brain-damaged Americans and a 7 foot 2 Frankenstein's monster with a spinner wife. Honky reigns supreme right now as talented African-American athletes go into the more lucrative (and considerably safer) NFL and NBAleaving the heavyweight division at the mercy of marauding giants from the former Soviet Union. So where there used to be brothers there are now brothers, Vitali and Wladimir Klitschko, the best two heavyweights in the world. They have vowed not to fight each other as they think that it is, well, just not them. But here comes a handsome, talented, power punching, shit talking, media friendly challenger from the cruiserweight division: Bermondsey's David "Hayemaker" Haye. Could he be the division's Messiah? Can a brother get a what-what?

David Haye offers a few quiet words on his chances in the upcoming fight.

"Alphabet soup titles, obese Nigerians, slobbyUkrainians, brain-damaged Americans and a 7 foot 2 Frankenstein's monster with a spinner wife. Honky reigns supreme at the moment as talented African-American athletes go into NFL and NBA."

Probably not and 1.53 is pretty decent business for Klitschko. On the face of it, it is a difficult fight to call with a lot of intangibles. Haye is fast and powerful with a suspect chin. Klitschko is big and powerful with a suspect chin. A straight match up of speed versus size? Not quite.

Wladimir weighed in at his last bout vs Hasim Rahman at 253½ lbs. That is just over 18 stone. David Haye weighed in at 215 for his first serious bout at heavyweight and has spent most of his career around 200 lbs. This is an enormous weight difference particularly as Klitschko punches his weight (46 KOs in 52 wins testify to that). Wlad also has 4 inches in height and 3 inches in reach over Haye - advantages he knows how to use very well. It will be tough as fuck for Haye to get close and unleash his big bombs.

"A combination of size difference, Haye's chin and Wlad's caution make 1.53 a very serviceable price that should be obtainable on Betfair before June 20."

As far as punch resistance goes it's the battle of the glass jaws. Klitschko has been knocked out by Lamon Brewster, Corrie Sanders and Ross Puritty and put down three times by Samuel Peter. Haye, on the other hand, has been dropped by a blown up super middleweight Jean Marc Mormeck and knocked out by the 40-year-old cruiserweight Carl Thompson and he faces one of the hardest punching heavyweights of the past few decades. You have to assume with those records, and with Klitschko having spent his entire career at heavyweight, that Haye's chin is the one in most danger.

Wlad is a safety first fighter these days, not prone to the recklessness of his earlier career or the stamina problems that have plagued him. It is a hugely impressive win if David Haye pulls it off with his superior speed, movement and aggression but a combination of size difference, Haye's chin and Wlad's caution make 1.53 a very serviceable price that should be obtainable on Betfair before June 20.

Imagined: Friday, May 22, 2009

Floyd Mayweather proves that all roads lead to him and Aerial Telly is a beast who just keeps coming

Once again back it's the incredible D, bookie enemy number one

It was another historic night in the world of boxing handicapping.  The undisputed number one and pound-for-pound King Aerial "Money" Telly extended his extraordinary record to 17 bets, 14 wins and 3 hotly disputed so-called alleged "losses".  Once again he called a big fight to perfection, destroyed the bookmakers who opposed him, backhanded the mopes who said the fight wouldn't go the distance and broke the hearts of those in the boxing fraturdity who called it 50-50.  It was almost like he was vouchsafed a vision of what would happen at the MGM Grand Las Vegas last night.  Because while Shane Mosley rocked Floyd Mayweather to his very boots in round two, Money won every other round and put on a masterful display that showcased both his offensive and defensive skills.

"Once again he destroyed the bookmakers who opposed him, backhanded the mopes who said the fight wouldn't go the distance and broke the hearts of those in the boxing fraturdity who called it 50-50."

Aside from the main event, perhaps the biggest talking point was the rising Mexican welterweight superstar Saul Alvarez. Fighting on the undercard he scored a ninth round TKO over Miguel Cotto's brother Jose Miguel round in an impressive run-out.  The main talking point, however, was that Alvarez is ginger right down to his fiery balls.  "Ginger Mexicans?" the crowd gasped “Do they evenmake those?" Apparently, they do.

Then there was the spectacle of Rhianna-beating piece of shit Chris Brown singing the national anthem.  Chris Brown!  Marking his rehabilitation from woman beating in heralding the ritualised celebration of violence.  He sang it badly, looking all the time at his PR dude like "nigga, what the fuck?" The crowd just wanted this punk out of the way to get to the action.

"In truth though, it is irrelevant.
Pacquiao can be juiced up to the eyeballs - he'll still lose to Floyd 'Money' Mayweather, the most technically gifted fighter that ever lived."

The bet could not have been won without the huge heart of Shane Mosley who kept going when he was plainly incapable of winning a round never mind the fight.  If Floyd had wanted to he could have taken him out anytime from the eighth round onwards but that is not how the boy gets down. 

In the post-fight interview he stuck to his guns on requiring Olympic standard drug testing for Manny Pacquiao and so he should.  Pacquiao has plummeted in Aerial Telly's estimation since bitching out on the drug tests (and make no mistake that is exactly what he's done)

In truth though, it is irrelevant.  Pacquiao can be juiced up to the eyeballs - he'll still lose to Floyd "Money" Mayweather, the most technically gifted fighter that ever lived.  All haters can eat a fat dick.  Recognize the real.

Imagined: Sunday, May 02, 2010

Mayweather v Mosley: Floyd on points is the only sensible option

Take 1.58. The time has come to bet like MEN

Aerial Telly would like to take the opportunity to pay tribute to Sugar Shane Mosley. What a fantastic career it has been. We can (just) overlook that he took performance enhancing drugs. He was a beast at lightweight, fearlessly moved up the divisions with his speed, skill and power, ducking nobody and letting motherfuckers know: Shane Mosley does not play. It is sad that his career will come to an end Saturday night after being outpointed by Floyd Mayweather but that is the only conceivable outcome. 1.61 is more than achievable at Betdaq (1.58 after commission) and this is the bet you should take.

"Floyd's counterpunching is that good that you cannot leave a single opening without it being punished. He throws fighters off their rhythm this way. His timing and accuracy have no equal. This is how he dictates the pace of fights."

Many are saying this is the toughest fight of Floyd's career. Potentially, that's certainly the case. Shane is a beautiful fighter with heart, power and talent to burn. His last fight was a stunning dismantling of that cheating piece of shit Antonio Margaritothat shook the boxing world, so why can't he do the same to Mayweather?

The bottom line is Floyd does almost everything better than Shane. The best defensive fighter on the planet, he also achieves the highest connect percentage of any boxer. Everyone assumes that Shane will blastoff throwing punches freely in an attempt to land as much leather as possible but isn't it funny how busy fighters seem to go into their shell when fighting Floyd? His counterpunching is that good that you cannot leave a single opening without it being punished. He throws fighters off their rhythm this way. His timing and accuracy have no equal. This is how he dictates the pace of fights.

"While Shane's performance against Margarito was terrific, he looked old against Mayorga, is 38 years old and is coming off an 18 month layoff."

As ever with Floyd, the incredible economy of his punches means he expends less energy leaving him with plenty of gas in the tank for the later rounds. Leaving aside that he's in phenomenal physical condition anyway, this always gives him the edge coming down the straight.

While Shane's performance against Margarito was terrific we shouldn't forget that he looked old against Mayorga, is 38 years old and is coming off an 18 month layoff. I have no doubt that Shane's speed and smarts will give Floyd headaches but it is a big, big upset if he pulls this off. I'm happy taking Mayweather on points because Shane has a great chin, huge heart and considerable boxing skills to get him through to the final bell should he be in trouble. And a safety first boxer like Floyd is highly unlikely to be looking for the knockout.

History is there for the making. Floyd will not let us down. Nor will Shane. Take the bet.

Imagined: Friday, April 30, 2010

Fraudley Embarrasson, the Turdatollah of I-ran, will knock out chinny, blowhard, piss gargler David Haye

8-1 and we're away

Boxing is dead. The sport currently masquerading as boxing only exists as a shadow, a shell of the greatest sport ever invented. Its death was confirmed yesterday when supposed "world champion" fighter David Haye announced he would defend his "title" against fellow "boxer" Audley "Harrison". David "Ducker " Haye is the likely winner and will correctly enter the ring a strong favourite. And yet, AND YET ladies and gentlemen, Aerial Telly, television panopticon, world's greatest boxing handicapper and man your girl is seeing when she tells you she needs "space"¹, is not advising a bets on the loudmouth Bermondsey boy. Because, using a phrase he thought he would never utter even in jest, Aerial Telly is advising a bet on Audley Harrison to win the world heavyweight boxing title by way of knockout. 8-1 is the advised price and he will break it down something like this.

Some noteworthy things about Fraudley Embarrasson. He will weigh approximately 28 lbs heavier and have an 8 inch longer reach over the Hayefaker - advantages he knows how to impose upon opponents on a good day. He's a southpaw which can cause the orthodox Haye difficulty and although his career is best politely described as "one fuckup after the other" nobody doubts that he has the physical tools to achieve his dream. Audley knocked out Danny Williams in three rounds (above) two years ago and looked something of a beast showcasing power, timing and, unusually for him, heart. Bear in mind that this is the same Danny Williams who Vitali Klitschko took 8 rounds to stop. Against a focused Audley he visited the canvas twice and sustained horrible cuts to his nose and eye.

"Harrison's a southpaw which can cause the orthodox Haye difficulty and although his career is best politely described as "one fuckup after the other" nobody doubts that he has the physical tools to achieve his dream."

Of course David Haye is no Danny Williams. He's faster, more skilful and a better finisher. He also doesn't take a punch anything like as well. Should Harrison happen to connect with one of those scathing uppercuts or lead lefts then David Haye is in a world of trouble. David Haye was knocked out at cruiserweight by a 40-year-old Carl Thompson and knocked down by the former super middleweight Jean Marc Mormeck. His chin remains a question-mark.

"The history of the heavyweight division is littered with slick talking little guys who came undone after feeling a real heavyweight's power for the first time."

So, what are the chances of that mythical beast the focused Audley Harrisonshowing up? Aerial Telly rates them as "half decent". He sees his entire life as building to this one shot at the world heavyweight title. Possibly the most widely panned boxer of recent times he has the chance to prove all the haters wrong and finally beat someone who is any good. 10 years on from his Olympic triumph it's the biggest fight of his life and the 6'4, 18 stone giant will never have prepared better.

David Haye said yesterday that "This fight is going to be as one sided as a gang rape by a pack of Silver Back gorillas!" Maybe, David. But the history of the heavyweight division is littered with slick talking little guys who came undone after feeling a real heavyweight's power for the first time. Come November 13 you may just be wishing you took the Klitschko fight.

Something in the region of 8-1 for a Harrison knockout should be achievable on Betfair. You know what to do.

¹She's actually telling the truth here as long as if by "space" you mean "the best fuck of her life"

Imagined: Wednesday, September 08, 2010

You'd have to be a total kiddy fiddler not to back Ricky Hatton against Jose Luis Castillo when Bet Direct are offering 1.62

Violence central

It looks like being a turbulent week for the City of Manchester. First, fat racist piece of shit Bernard Manning dies in a pool of his own pus, then an insane tyrant takes over Manchester City football club, and in the early hours of Sunday morningRicky Hatton will beat Mexican legend Jose Luis Castillo over 12 rounds of boxing under the Unified Rules of the Association of Boxing. Any deviation from this version of events marks you down as a paedophile and will require you to join the sex offenders' register and report to a police station once a fortnight. Aerial Telly is telling you this now while you've still got time to place money on it because that's the kind of guy he is.

A few years ago this would have been a coin toss fight. Castillo is a ferocious body puncher with no little skill, a huge heart who many, Aerial Telly included, thought beat Floyd Mayweather in their first fight. The two have similar styles and while Hatton is thought of as the bigger guy it's obvious getting down to 135 was busting Castillo's ass so I don't expect the fight being at 140 to be any significant advantage for Hatton. Where I do think Hatton has significant and telling advantages is in youth, freshness and conditioning.

Castillo is 33 and Hatton is 28. Not such a massive difference in birthdays there but in ring years Castillo is an old timer. Since stepping into the ring as a professional at the age of 16 Castillo has fought 63 times with some serious wars among them culminating in the two fights with the late Diego Corrales, the first of which is one of the most punishing fights in history (see above for evidence). Nobody but nobody is the same after fights like that and Castillo comes up against a young, hungry champion who despite ballooning between fights always enters the ring in phenomenal condition. Hatton is a gym rat and, given some mediocre performances since his win over Kostya Tszyu, will be looking to return strongly at his natural weight in one of the fights that will define his legacy.

At this stage of his career Castillo needs to be avoiding the kind of relentless pressure Hatton will bring, particularly after his performance against Herman Ngoudjo, winning a lucky split decision. Both fighters will be working the body but Ricky will simply have a higher output. Castillo will need to take time off during rounds but Hatton will be swarming all over him, more than likely mauling and probably butting. It's not always pretty, but it is always effective.

Stylistically, this fight will not throw up any surprises. It's going to be about who's the freshest, who's in best condition, who can keep throwing and landing for the full 12 rounds. That man is Ricky Hatton and there is no way he can possibly lose. Apart from on cuts.

Correct price 1.5 Hatton.

Yes, Aerial Telly puts his money where his miggedy mouth is

Always and forever. Photographic proof below.

When you've been as successful as Aerial Telly has you become accustomed to certain things. And one of things he has become accustomed to is people doubting the veracity of his stories. Never mind that he has proven his betting genius time and time again. Still, people want to ask him questions about whether he actually bets on these events. "You've got to be kidding me?" you say "The same Aerial Telly who called Floyd v Oscar so accurately?, The man who flagged up Jose Luis Castillo as a shot fighter before the Hatton fight and was proven so stunningly right? The man whose devastating preview of Calzaghe v Kessler predicted the fight and result to perfection. The same Aerial Telly whose ballsy tipping of Brian to win Big Brother at 1.83 with weeks remaining sent shockwaves through the bookmaking world?"

Yeah, that's the guy. And even as he cut through the hype of the Hatton marketing machine to tip Floyd Mayweather and wasproven right in indelible technicolour at the weekend, among the thousands of congratulatory emails there were messages from people asking if he backed the tips himself.

Motherfucker what?

Well, of course Aerial Telly backs his judgment. He's never been afraid to put everything on the line. A recent case in point was his startling stance against the market favourite in the England manager market, Martin O'Neill. You'll see above in the screen shot from his Betfair trading how Aerial Telly has brilliantly built up a large equity on the two Italians Capello and Lippi while simultaneously trading his huge loss on O'Neill into a minimal one when Capello flew into Heathrow and O'Neill's odds shot out. And now it's only a matter of formality for Fabio Capello to be appointed new England manager and for Aerial Telly to collect his winnings. He hates talking about his betting successes and resents that certain "people" have forced his hand into an out-of-character revelation of his gambling activity.

Aerial "Money" Telly - 350 on the wrist, 100 on the finger, 500 around the neck and your girl around the waist. I expect you'll be wanting photographic evidence of that next?

Be careful what you wish for, chump.

When Ricky Hatton beats Paulie Malignaggi like Aerial Telly readers beat their Johnsons, people will wonder why the price was 1.48 just days before the massacre

And they will turn to the television panopticon and be all "dude"

In the name of all that's holy, will you stop hitting up Aerial Telly about the Hatton Malignaggi fight? Yes, the world's foremost boxing handicapper has an opinion on the fight. Yes, he has taken note of the prices. Yes, he has followed both men's careers closely and yes he has made a detailed stylistic analysis of the match up and is prepared to put his massive reputation on the line once again. He is a beast who just keeps coming. You better ACKS somebody.

Defensive genius Paulie Malignaggi being punched repeatedly in the face by Herman Ndgoudjo due to not being all that good at defence.

"Malignaggi has only 5 KOs in his 25 wins, which is dire and he breaks his hands as often as Keeley Whores breaks a promise. None of this augurs well for the Magic Man."

OK, I make Ricky Hatton around 1.4 for this and I've been matched at 1.49 (1.48 after commission) on Betdaq. While I liked Malignaggi as he was coming up, the more I see of him the less impressed I am. For somebody regarded as a savvy defensive fighter he gets hit squarely and constantly. He has only 5 KOs in his 25 wins, which is dire and he breaks his hands as often as Keeley Whores breaks a promise. None of this augurs well for the Magic Man.

"Paulie has absolutely no punching power to bother Hatton when he moves inside and, despite what you may read, Malignaggi is not hard to hit."

Malignaggi has looked like absolute shite in his last two fights. He got a horrible underserved decision against Herman Ngoudjo earlier this year which most observers thought he lost and looked pretty useless gaining a split decision over Lovemore N'dou in May.

Paulie has the reputation as the most effeminate man ever to enter a boxing ring but when a weight drained Miguel Cotto beat the living fuck out of him in 2006, he took it like a man so expect this to go the distance.

As for Hatton, I think people are reading a little too much into his vulnerabilities against Juan Lazcano. Fighters coming back after their first defeat often look shaky and he ended up winning a wide decision in any case. Lazcano is no genius but he has 27 knockouts in 37 contests so if you go charging in (as Hatton stupidly did) and get caught by a guy like that then you're going to get stunned. Paulie has absolutely no punching power to bother Hatton when he moves inside and, despite what you may read, Malignaggi is not hard to hit.

"McGirt is possibly the most overrated trainer in the history of boxing who gives absolutely horrific advice in the corner - notably 'you gotta box this guy' to Arturo Gatti vs Floyd Mayweather"

Now the trainers: Malignaggi's guy Buddy McGirt is possibly the most overrated trainer in the history of boxing who gives absolutely horrific advice in the corner - notably "you gotta box this guy" to Arturo Gatti vs Floyd Mayweather. Hatton is being trained for the first time by Floyd Mayweather senior who knows the game inside out and under no circumstances will be out thought by McGirt.

I expect referee Kenny Bayless to be much more lenient on Hatton's mauling style than Joe Cortez was. He lets fighters fight, which will be to Hatton's advantage.

1.48 is a good price. Go take.

Imagined: 20th November 2008

Valuev is such a gigantic turd even chinny blowhard ducker David Haye can flush him

1.73 should do it

Many times this year we have wondered: is a big fight actually going to take place? David "ongoing negotiations" Haye bitched outagainst Wladimir Klitschko, Kelly Pavlik cancelled against Paul Williams, David "contract dispute" Haye bitched out again against Vitali Klitschko, Marquez v Mayweather was postponed for months because of a rib injury, Quintana vs. Clottey got shitcanned - the list grows.  But come Saturday night in Nuremberg, David "hurty tummy" Haye will challenge Nikolai Valuev for the WBA heavyweight championship of the world.  Aerial Telly suggests that the 1.73 available for a David Haye victory at Jenningsbet and Betdaq is sound business and it breaks down something like this.

"Typically, when analysing such a matchup, you would look to similar previous opponents a fighter has faced.  But there is no one like Nikolai Valuev.  No one comes close to his 7 foot, 23 stone frame."

Typically, when analysing such a matchup, you would look to similar previous opponents a fighter has faced.  But there is no one like Nikolai Valuev.  No one comes close to his 7 foot, 23 stone frame, certainly not a blown up cruiserweight like David Haye.  The first question you ask about Haye is: can someone who was knocked out by a 39-year-old cruiserweight (Carl Thompson, Haye's only loss) and knocked down by a blown-up super middleweight (Jean Marc Mormeck) really take a heavyweight's power?

"Aleksandr Zimin can talk all he likes about the technical improvements he's made - he's still a depressingly mediocre boxer who turns like the QE2 and has a head like a triceratops."

Probably not is the answer but Valuev does not have a real heavyweight's power.  He has just two knockouts in his past 10 bouts and is generally too lumbering to follow up with killer combinations when he does land a good shot.  Haye has such a huge speed advantage that hitting him will be difficult.

I see David Haye winning this by doing good body work early on, sapping the giant's stamina, making him vulnerable to a late stoppage. Haye's combinations are insanely fast for this weight class and I just do not see Valuev being able to effectively smother them.  And once Haye has you in trouble he is a demon finisher, 21 of his 22 victories coming by knockout. 

He will need to be patient.  The sheer scale of Valuev makes him a unique challenge and means physically dominating him is not an optional.  You need to choose your sorties carefully and make everyone count.  Timing will be the key. Valuev's coach Aleksandr Zimin can talk all he likes about the technical improvements he's made - he's still a depressingly mediocre boxer who turns like the QE2 and has a head like a triceratops.

It will almost certainly be a very poor fight. David Haye could get himself knocked out and, yes, Valuev could get a gift decision like he did with Evander Holyfield and John Ruiz.  But the likelihood is that David Haye takes this.  His price has drifted from 1.5 some weeks back to over 1.7 and there's no real reason for this.  Haye has all the tools to take Valuev into very deep water and make him wish he had stayed drinking rotgut, eating raw steak and wrestling bears in the forests of Saint Petersburg.

Imagined: Thursday, November 05, 2009